28% black positive response is higher than 11% or 18% — a GOP opportunity

Like you, in the aftermath of Katrina, we are dismayed by the depressing number of African Americans72% — who think that President Bush does not care about black people. But, in fairness, what do we have a right to expect after the rhetoric of the Jesse Jacksons, Al Sharptons, Louis Farrakhans, Cynthia McKinneys, Maxine Waters, Julian Bonds, and Randall Robinsons of this world? What can anyone reasonably expect when there are TV ads implying that George Bush did not care about the horrible murder of James Byrd or that black churches will burn if the GOP wins elections? It would be interesting to chart the time the leaders spend lambasting George Bush and the GOP versus their time addressing the problem that 70% of births are illegitimate among African Americans. This is of interest because, statistically in America, all you have to do to stay out of poverty is: (1) graduate from high school; (2) get a job; and (3) have no children out of wedlock.

We are here to point out that these black leaders have chosen in their rhetoric and actions a foolish poitical strategy. Here are the statistics as calculated by James Taranto:

The chart is a little hard to read, but the upshot is this: 59.8% of the American people believe that Bush cares about the fate of African Americans in New Orleans, and did not slow or hamper relief efforts because the recipients were black. Therefore: even if the black leaders convinced 100% of African Americans that Bush and the GOP were racist, it would not change majority opinion. Taranto’s point is that for playing the race card to work politically, it not only has to convince blacks, it has to influence white voters — and this is not happening.

Our point is somewhat different: the extreme and surreal rhetoric chosen by the African American / Democratic leadership is increasingly failing to influence its target audience in the black community. As the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies pointed out in October 2004, the number of African Americans who said they were willing to vote for George Bush soared to 18% in the most recent election cycle:

In a surprising contradiction, more African Americans say they are willing to vote for President George W. Bush on November 2, even though his favorable rating is lower now than it was four years ago, according to a new poll released today by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. In the Joint Center’s 2004 National Opinion Poll – Politics, 18 percent of African Americans say they would vote for President Bush, doubling the nine percent that said they would support him in the Joint Center’s pre-election 2000 poll. However, Senator John Kerry still beats President Bush among African American voters (69 to 18 percent).

Rich Lowry in NRO says that, according to exit polling, Bush’s numbers only inched up in 2004 over 2000. Whether the difference between in-person polling and telephone polling influenced the results is impossible to tell, but in any event the direction was clear and it was positive for the GOP:

The numbers fell off on Election Day. According to the exit polls, Bush’s support among blacks nationally inched up only slightly from 9 percent in 2000 to 11 percent in 2004. But the kind of dramatic movement in the pre-election Joint Center survey showed up in the battleground states where the GOP invested the most resources to woo black voters. Bush went from 7 percent of the black vote in Florida in 2000 to 13 percent in 2004. In all-important Ohio, Bush’s support among blacks rose from 10 percent to 16 percent.

In the near term, the Republican Party has no chance with the 72% of the African American population who say that he does not care about black people. But the GOP has clearly been making inroads in the other 28%. As Thomas Lifson has pointed out in the American Thinker, Bush’s performance in 2004 marked a 37.5% increase in black votes for him, very important in a voting bloc that accounts for roughly a quarter of national Democratic vote totals.

We prefer to see the glass as not mostly empty. If the glass goes from 8% full to 11% full, as it has, and holds the prospect of reaching 18% or 28% full, that would be incredible progress.

2 Responses to “28% black positive response is higher than 11% or 18% — a GOP opportunity”

  1. larwyn Says:

    This is related –

    Subj: Donna Brazille on CNN;s Situation Room brags Blanco got her whole family out – (Tale told on 9/6/05 see my email below)

    Captain’s Quarters:
    September 13, 2005
    LA Congressman Hires Starving Guardsman Movers
    While thouands of New Orleans residents waited for rescue from Hurricane Katrina’s devastation and the rising flood waters from the levee breaks, a Louisiana Congressman tied up National Guard resources for over an hour so he could retrieve his belongings from his house in the beleaguered city. ABC News reports tonight that Guardsman tell them of the use of their time and resources on September 2nd to work as personal movers for Rep. William Jefferson (via The Anchoress and CQ reader Alicia G):

    .Be nice to add this to the Wm Jefferson story- shame Brazille not Clinton Mgr
    headlines: Wm Jefferson, Clinton Mgr —–Gore– not same ring.

    Hope video still accessable.
    (SITUATION ROOM OF 9/6/05 -my email sent after midnight)

    Subj: Donna Brazille on CNN;s Situation Room brags Blanco got her whole family out
    Date: 9/7/05 1:23:46 AM Eastern Daylight Time
    From: Greerwynn

    I hope someone has already picked this up.
    She is native of LA and began her story that her sister, who is in personal
    care facility was said to have refused to leave.

    She went into where other members of the family were scattered.

    But, it is the Brazille way that they all either went together or none would leave.

    OK. She then became very joyful that the Governor arranged to have the individual family members picked up, in addition to the sister and got them all together to evacuate.

    She was speaking as if Blanco were Mother Teresa. That this showed what
    a great lady and governor she is. You can envision Wolfless’s smiling glow
    hearing such a lovely tale …..

    ………. skimming Gateway Pundit re Jessie Jackson
    I see the “foreigners to front of line” item and I hope that someone has already
    reported on this show of hubris. (BY BRAZILLE AND BLITZER)

    All these state employees out gathering up members of the selfish, think
    “we should get special treatment” family.

    CNN has been running several mother’s looking for their children or babies.

    Wonder how many people the Gov musters each time she sees one of these
    sad stories?

    Of course that Black Women was not a Gore campaign manager.

    Can you imagine what would be made of this is it was Karl Rove trying to have
    his family rounded up to all leave together – or they are staying.


    Snips from post: GatewayPundit of Sept 7, 2005:
    It is interesting how Jesse puts all of this on President Bush and his administration and gives Mayor Nagin a pass (see Hugh Hewitt today).* It was Mayor Nagin who appeared not to have a plan or to follow one. Does this make the black mayor racist?

    * Because the mayor let foreigners go to the front of the line and evacutate from the city before the locals; does this make the mayor racist?


    My Update 9/14/05:
    The 6th was a very hectic day here, grandson packing to leave
    for school. I was exhausted and original email had lots of typos, I just wanted
    to get to bed – but after reading the posts on GatewayPundit hoped this
    hadn’t slipped thru cracks. I just corrected spellings and spacings –
    yikes i spelled Karl Rove – Carl – I was very tired.

  2. DL Says:

    I think much of the black change is because Jesse and Al are being seen more often as human forms of the herpes virus – damn, it just won’t go away – it demands too much attention, and it is the end result of accepting advice from pimps. (as Walter Williams refers to them)

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