More fun than jihad du jour

A little something we’re working on:

1) Background West: Amazon’s revenues will grow 60% next year to $224 billion, but it already has over $500 billion in sales including pass-throughs from the US, Europe, Asia, South America, China, and elsewhere; non-US revenue will near 50% shortly

2) Background Asia: Alibaba’s revenues this year are $30 billion, and they will increase 50% to $45 billion next fiscal year, but Alibaba already has $470 billion in sales including pass-throughs from the US, Europe, South America, China and elsewhere

3) To repeat, Alibaba and Amazon have $1 trillion in online retail sales and recently are growing over 50% a year

4) Together they have less than 10% of global online retail sales, and probably half of those are streaming video, so the growth of global product sales will be unprecedented

5) Events are now moving at a much faster pace as dictated by the global e-commerce revolution beginning in earnest around 2014 in Asia and elsewhere, and continuing indefinitely, possibly the greatest speed advancement since the telephone, car, jet airplane, and the internet

6) (We have requested to purchase from Cargo Facts a series of charts detailing the remarkable additions to air routes and retail distribution in Europe, North America, and Asia by Amazon, Alibaba, their airlines and others; when you see the complexities already taken to transform e-retail into a global 24-hour home delivery nexus, you will be impressed)

7) Historically, the on-line revenue growth rates and volumes have been supported by ever expanding freighter and express aircraft fleets servicing Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, and others, and including support from DHL, UPS, TNT (FedEx), YTO, SF Express, ZTO, FedEx etc, now numbering over 900 aircraft and growing quickly

8) Some widebody freighters are new, but all narrowbody freighters are passenger-to-freighter conversions, with lower prices and greater operating flexibility

9) Leading MRO’s that do conversions conservatively estimate 80 a year this year and beyond

10) These estimates may well be very low – to give you just one example, e-commerce leader Alibaba, with its uncanny growth and $440 billion market cap, has just committed (9/2017) to 24 hour deliveries to every person in China in five years; since FedEx and its competitors have 850 freighters and China’s express companies have 80 or so, they will have to add freighters at an astonishing rate to meet this goal

11) We note for the record that both Amazon and Alibaba, as well as others, are also establishing huge regional warehouses to hold inventories for deliveries of “slow” as opposed to “fast” (pharma, high-value, perishable, etc) goods, which will enhance the growth rates of start-up and smaller regional express carriers, in most regions around the globe, as the 24 hour, home delivery nexus expands worldwide

Global e-commerce is going from under $2 trillion to $5 trillion in a few years, a lot of the growth in Asia. At least somebody is having a good time. BTW while you weren’t looking Amazon started an airline that’s already up to 60 planes. (Better than focusing on the idiots who are close to ruining this country.)

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