Our two cents

Some knowledgeable observers see the US stock market like Japan in 1989 or the heady NASDAQ of 1999. We don’t. Yeah, the forward P/E is in the mid to high teens (probably too high) and yesterday sure was bad, but seeing high inflation in commodities and elsewhere seems way off the mark to us. As we first observed more than a dozen years ago, don’t underestimate technology as a bailout. To take just one tiny example, the iPhone, barely a decade old, now puts more computing power in young hands than the entirety of NASA had for Apollo 11. Maybe the markets are pricing in some big exogenous event, but if not, the current speed-of-light fluctuations seem overdone.

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