China’s naval plans

From page 63 of this:

From a naval perspective, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is pursuing a mix of high-end and low-end ships and submarines. This strategy would allow the PLAN to spread out across the vast Pacific Ocean in sufficient numbers to locate and interdict U.S. ships. At the high end, China is investing in aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered fast-attack submarines and large surface combatants equipped with advanced radars, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and surface-to-surface missiles…Backed by a growing arsenal of longer-range and more sophisticated air and missile weapons, the Chinese navy will have a highly capable and numerically larger maritime force by the middle of the next decade. If this situation comes to fruition, it could make the projection of U.S. naval power cost prohibitive in the western Pacific, undermining the credibility of our alliance commitments.

Given my estimate that the future size of the PLA Navy will be about 550 warships and submarines by 2030 – twice the size of today’s U.S. Navy, it is clear the U.S. Navy is at great risk of not being adequately sized or outfitted to meet our national security commitments in the Indo-Pacific, let alone around the globe. Therefore, to accomplish all of the above missions, to provide a credible deterrent against PRC hegemony and to be able to fight and win wars at sea, the U.S. Navy must get bigger.

As I stated at the beginning of this paper, I am an intelligence officer, not a U.S. Navy force structure expert, but the evidence that a strategic gap between the U.S. Navy and PLA Navy is on the verge of exploding over the next decade and a half is overwhelming. As such, it seems clear to me that to keep even a modicum of parity with the Chinese, the U.S. Navy will require more than 355 ships.

Interesting reading. Why on earth should anyone think that China doesn’t want, at a minimum, regional hegemony over everything in the South China Sea’s area? HT: PJ

Mini-bonus: the media beclown themselves daily.

One Response to “China’s naval plans”

  1. feeblemind Says:

    There is really nothing new here in his assessment. China took over the role of imperial Japan at the turn of the century.

    Can we rise to meet the challenge?

    Maybe. I dunno. One has to remember China is not a juggernaut. They have their weaknesses as well. We do have a history of improvisation, ingenuity and resourcefulness . . . so there is that.

    The Navy can’t even decide what type of ships they need in the future and no matter what they choose, they will be so expensive that Congress will have little appetite for spending the money.

    I fear the strategic balance in the western Pacific will get worse before it gets better.

    Finally, politics are so divided here that it will be difficult to muster the determination to check the Chinese, who are thousands of miles away and admired here by many on the Left..

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