Seven down charts recording China’s economy

Very very interesting: retail sales, property sales, auto sales, consumption tax revenues, industrial profits, PMI (47-49), GDP by quarter, down, down, down, and on and on. Most are down big from a decade ago. So the stimuli provided by corporate debt 2x and family debt 3x since then, have now stopped working. But it’s even worse than that. Long time observers of China’s economy know that China’s government reported GDP and growth numbers are nonsense.

Slow growth and too much leverage – hey that sounds like 2008. (Sounds like Weimar or Venezuela without the crazy devaluations.) So what do you do if you are Xi Jinping? Maybe just try to cope with tough circumstances. However, we know what a Chinese admiral or two are thinking about. A charming little (or not so little) war would change the subject completely, focusing on the enemy outside as opposed to inside. We don’t see it, but the probability is not zero.

3 Responses to “Seven down charts recording China’s economy”

  1. feeblemind Says:

    Behind the $$$$ wall.

  2. feeblemind Says:

    Leverage. Yeah. When things head south a leveraged position turns ugly really fast.

    Just ask the people that were leveraged in the stock market in 1929.

    So is ‘the hard landing’/’doomsday’ just around the corner after all these years?

    Dunno, but I concur things appear to be getting worse at an increasing rate.

    Concur that a war is not imminent. Just shows that there is very hawkish attitude among some in China and that the country’s thinking isn’t monolithic. One wonders how much this hawkish attitude influences policy? It certainly must have much to do with the artificial islands and the belligerence in the South China Sea.

    I do believe China is lining up their geopolitical chess pieces to be ready for war. They have to make sure that if they wage war, they will win. Things don’t end well for leaders that engage in war and lose. I imagine the Chinese leadership prefers being in power and at peace rather than being on the losing end of a war.

  3. feeblemind Says:

    More here:

    China: Bribing Big Brother

    https://strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20190103.aspx

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