More disturbing numbers


China’s official figures for the size of its economy are about 16 percent larger than they should be, and measures of real GDP growth were overstated by about 2 percentage points between 2008 and 2016, according to a study published by the Brookings Institution Thursday. Combined with the country’s own downgrade of its GDP growth for this year to a range of between 6 percent and 6.5 percent earlier in the week, that represents a sort of profit warning for the hchineconomy.

The Brookings study is here and it will make your head spin. More via CNBC: “China’s February dollar-denominated exports fell 20.7 percent, compared to an expected 4.8 percent fall.” The whole thing is very odd.

One Response to “More disturbing numbers”

  1. feeblemind Says:

    The statistical fog reminds of one of the final scenes in the movie, The Battle of Britain.

    The PM’s office calls him for confirmation on the latest numbers posted for German aircraft losses as the Germans were saying the numbers were wildly exaggerated.

    Dowding replied that he wasn’t really interested in such statistics. If he was right, the German attacks would stop. If he was wrong the Germans would be in Whitehall in two weeks. The attacks stopped.

    So it could be argued that China is still an economic juggernaut or on the brink of a major downturn, but it will be their actions that let us know which is the case, not the numbers being published.

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