Nuke of Earl
I believe it is fairly likely that Iraq has a couple of nuclear weapons, and that it is Sadaam Hussein’s plan to announce them just before the fighting starts.
The logic behind my argument is the attempt to see Sadaam as something other than a pathetic loser awaiting destruction amidst the follies of his grandiose dreams.
So the Sadaam thought process goes like this: “As long as I can buy time by using Hans Blix and business partners Germany, France and Russia, I will. Such a course is totally without cost, and delay and deception have worked pretty well so far. After all, it is ten years since UN resolution 687, giving me 15 days to come clean about weapons, and no consequences have happened so far. But if Bush is serious and war is about to come, I will shift my position to announce that I will, reluctantly, use nukes in defense of my country against an invading horde.”
Think of the results that might achieve: (a) dramatic escalation of the anti-war movements in the West; (b) withdrawal of the US forces on the border; (c) humiliation of America and the American president; (d) permanent installation of Sadaam as the head of the Arab nation. That’s Plan A.
(The critics of America won’t even pause long enough to note that the admission means Sadaam has been lying about everything, and egregiously so, for many years.)
Plan B is taking out Tel Aviv and as many Americans as possible, making Sadaam the number one martyr of the Arab world for all time.
This scenario helps to explain why Sadaam appears to be doing nothing to prevent this war from happening. Surely he has a better plan than loosing some germs in the NYC subway system. Or maybe he’s just nuts, and will be destroyed easily. I certainly hope so.