Not because of accuracy of course. This TIME poll’s methodology:

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone August 24-26, 2004 among a random sample of 1,207 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,026 reported registered voters and 835 likely voters. The margin of error for registered and likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

So this poll has 85% of adults claiming to be registered voters, and 81% of registered voters listed as likely voters. This would equate to voter turnout of around 69%, much higher than the 57% or so actual turnout in 2000. So, dear reader, the +/- 4% listed above as the accuracy of the poll is bunkum. Or, more precisely, it is only not bunkum if the 12% of people mistakenly called likely voterss are exactly the same as likely voters.

To take an extreme example to show the utter meaningless of the poll, if these 123 people polled who are not going to vote all said they were Kerry supporters, then the poll would go from Bush 46%, Kerry 44% to Bush 54%, Kerry 34%.

So, don’t take the poll too seriously. But it’s nice that TIME has George Bush winning.

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