All of a sudden the “likely voters” have become important: Bush now leads in TIME Magazine poll
The polls will now be seen to shift mightily from the way they were spun during the summer. Suddenly the “likely voters” will be reported, whereas many of the summer’s polls were “registered voters” or simply “adults.” “Registered voters” polls give results that skew Democrat, while “adult” polls skew wildly Democratic.
TIME’s poll was conductred this way:
Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.
70% of adults is still way too high a number as an estimate of “likely voters,” and it is likley that Republicans are still underpolled. Which leads us to say: wow!
52% Bush, 41% Kerry. Now that’s a bounce, and it underestimates the Bush lead.
UPDATE: Powerline has more good poll news here. Rasmussen’s lead is smaller, but I am guessing that his results will more smoothly move up as his definition of likely voters gets adjusted between now and election day. I have previously written that I believe the polling business offers its Democrat customers in the media a hopeful picture during the summer, and then trends Republican as election day approaches in order to maintain professional credibility by being close to the actual results.