In the year 2525
Actually 2030. Here’s a presentation by demographer William H. Frey, as reported by Ron Brownstein. Excerpt:
In 2000 and 2004, Bush won all 11 states of the old Confederacy, plus Oklahoma and Kentucky. In those two elections it netted him 168 electoral college votes. That meant Democrats had to win about 73% of the remaining votes to secure a majority — a hurdle they found a little too high each time.
Frey projects that those 13 Southern states would cast 173 electoral college votes after 2010, and account for 186 after the 2030 census. If Republicans can still sweep the South at that point, Democrats would need to win a daunting 77% of the remaining votes to construct a majority.
Here are the maps showing the unfortunate demographic trends for Democrats:
From the Frey pdf:
When Richard Nixon was elected to his second term in 1972, the collective Sun Belt states held only a 4-vote edge in the 538-vote Electoral College. Nixon’s advisors showed shrewd demographic foresight when they launched their well-known “Southern Strategy.”
By the time George W. Bush got reelected last year, the Sun Belt Electoral College advantage grew to 88. And if the new projections are on target, this advantage will rise to 146 votes after the 2030 census. The ongoing decline in fortunes for the nation’s “establishment” states as they lose clout to what was thought of as the “periphery” is fairly dramatic. Between now and 2030, Texas and Florida will gain another eight and nine new electors, respectively. During the same period, New York will lose six electors while Pennsylvania and Ohio will each lose another four….
Could Zager and Evans have been thinking about the Democratic Party?