Gerhard Schröder’s desperate, bold version of the California Recall
Hard on the heels of the devastating regional defeat described below, Gerhard Schröder moved up the elections for German Chancellor by a year (see John Fund’s piece too). In short, he has asked for a Recall vote on himself. This is extraordinary, not only because an election is scheduled for 2006, but because normal electoral procedures have to be bent out of shape for this to occur. Why? The Economist:
IS IT suicide out of fear of being murdered? A brilliant move to discipline left-wing dissenters within his party and catch the opposition off guard? Or is it the act of a true statesman who wants to save his country more than a year of political stalemate at a time when change is urgently required? Speculation ran rampant after Germany’s chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, announced on Sunday May 22nd that he would seek to bring forward parliamentary elections by a year, to this autumn, following the crushing defeat of his Social Democrats (SPD) in regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state and the SPD’s heartland. “Germans should declare by whom they wish to be governed,” Mr Schröder said in a brief and bitter statement.
Ah yes, governed by whom. There is a legitimate question of conservative infighting, based on the the least election. BBC:
It may be that the government also hoped to catch the opposition conservatives on the hop. The opposition is made up of two parties: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which runs candidates nationwide except in Bavaria, and the Christian Social Union (CSU) which runs only in Bavaria. In the last general election, the CSU leader Edmund Stoiber was narrowly defeated by Gerhard Schroeder. He has still not ruled out wanting to stand again, annoying supporters of the CDU leader Angela Merkel – who feel she should run. The conservatives had wanted to settle the so-called “Chancellor-question” next year.
So part of the Schröder strategy may be to sow confusion in the opposition ranks. However, having been through the California Recall, we think the answer may be quite simple. Even though the CDU and CSU (conservative parties) have a big lead today, Schröder is personally much more popular than likely contender Angela Merkel. As the Economist notes:
Mr Schröder has shown time and time again that he should not be underestimated. Last time, in 2002, he managed to turn things round in the months before the election—not least because he cut a dashing figure dealing with a flood in eastern Germany and stood firm in his opposition to the war in Iraq. What is more, his approval ratings are still far above those of Ms Merkel.
However, this is not Arnold Schwarzenegger versus Gray Davis, with the roles reversed. Ms. Merkel may be charismatically challenged, but she is no economic girlie-man. Mr. Schröder may cut a “dashing figure,” but the Governator would have flopped big-time if he promised a continuation of the ruinous policies of the past. At issue in Germany is the speed with which reform will be pursued, and Merkel is riding the faster horse.
ADDENDUM
Of course, this being politics, we never underestimate the power of scandal. Joschka Fischer, Germany’s Green foreign minister, has seen his carrer and Green Party prospects seriously weakened by a major scandal involving the issuing of visas for Ukrainian hookers. So we’ll just have to see what the future brings.