Iran: a country with an exit strategy
Michael Ledeen, a pessimist on Iran and US policy towards Iran — all for good reason — wrote some things that brought us up short (in NRO):
Many Iranians have come to the conclusion that their country is a dangerous place, and they are running. A significant number of former officials have left Iran for infidel countries in the past few weeks and months. The former minister of culture, Ayatollah Mohajerani, has gone to London, along with the former mayor of Tehran, Mohammed Hassan Malekmadani. Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of the Revolutionary Guards, is now in Washington. Mohammed Taghi Banki and Cyrus Nasseri, until recently high-ranking officials, have gone to Austria. And these are the lucky ones, because they have managed to escape the Islamic republic. Within the cauldron, the purge continues, as I have suggested it would. Ten members of the Khorassan judiciary have been forced to resign. The commander in chief of the army is gone. Payman Forouzesh and Golmohammad Baqeri, both members of the last parliament, have resigned, as has Mohammed Mirlohi, the deputy minister of legal and parliamentary affairs. Other resignations and departures are likely to follow in short order; a friend of mine who knows a great deal about the affairs of banks in the Persian Gulf tells me there is an unprecedented flow of private money out of Iran to places like Dubai, Abu Dabhi, and Qatar.
This exodus does not bespeak either a tranquil country or a regime confident of its internal power, especially against the background of the massive repression now under way. It rather suggests a regime that knows it is hated, and intends to stay in power by crushing anyone in its way, both at home and abroad. It is reminiscent of the final days of the Nazi regime, when the Fuhrer in his bunker swung wildly between megalomaniacal dreams of miraculous world conquest, and deep depression, alternately purging his old guard and promoting incompetent underlings to positions of great power.
We would be very interested in what these formerly powerful refugees are thinking. All in all, it sounds closer to an end than a beginning, nukes or not. But how dangerous an end?
September 25th, 2005 at 8:31 am
Will we take advantage of this exodus from Iran to support the resistance?
Now that Colin is gone, will State allow funding of Iranian citizens for overthrow
of the mullahs?
No one seems to remember that State with held all those funds for
training Iraqi exiles to defeat Saddam and establish new government
with people on the ground that understood language and culture.
Yeah, I am glad that Colin is keeping a low profile. Only throwing his
BS from safety of Europe. Hope he stays there!