Comments on: H5N1 bird flu, vaccine, the MSM, and the perils of cost-benefit analysis http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2005/10/14/h5n1-vaccine-and-the-peril-of-cost-benefit-analysis/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 11:49:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: wetDirt http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2005/10/14/h5n1-vaccine-and-the-peril-of-cost-benefit-analysis/#comment-253785 wetDirt Fri, 15 Sep 2006 21:46:07 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2005/10/14/h5n1-vaccine-and-the-peril-of-cost-benefit-analysis/#comment-253785 Influenza is most contagious _before_ symptoms show. And there is currently evidence that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 occurred in Turkey in January and Indonesia in March and July, as well as other suspected H2H. Currently, about 60% of people who get this flu, die. What isn't known is what % of exposed people get it. So the risk of a really, really bad pandemic is out there, and not as far away as you might think. And it will arrive first in the great international airports, in people who appear healthy. The problem is that this is a low-probablity, high-risk issue. Similar issues are the risk of getting into a car accident, or having your house catch on fire. For these problems, we generally pool resources into something called 'insurance' to help out the unfortunates. But in an epidemic where half the population is ill, and half of those may die, where will help come from? A vaccine is insurance, and money paid out for insurance is not money down the drain, particularly if you need to file a claim. Influenza is most contagious _before_ symptoms show. And there is currently evidence that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 occurred in Turkey in January and Indonesia in March and July, as well as other suspected H2H. Currently, about 60% of people who get this flu, die. What isn’t known is what % of exposed people get it. So the risk of a really, really bad pandemic is out there, and not as far away as you might think. And it will arrive first in the great international airports, in people who appear healthy. The problem is that this is a low-probablity, high-risk issue. Similar issues are the risk of getting into a car accident, or having your house catch on fire. For these problems, we generally pool resources into something called ‘insurance’ to help out the unfortunates. But in an epidemic where half the population is ill, and half of those may die, where will help come from? A vaccine is insurance, and money paid out for insurance is not money down the drain, particularly if you need to file a claim.

]]> By: larwyn http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2005/10/14/h5n1-vaccine-and-the-peril-of-cost-benefit-analysis/#comment-127391 larwyn Fri, 14 Oct 2005 20:06:49 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2005/10/14/h5n1-vaccine-and-the-peril-of-cost-benefit-analysis/#comment-127391 Thank you Jack, Sending your post to all my family and friends. But still buying some paper masks to have on hand. Think that is valid cost-benefit risk. Best Thank you Jack,
Sending your post to all my family and friends. But still buying some
paper masks to have on hand. Think that is valid cost-benefit risk.

Best

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