There is in fact a little wiggle room in VP Dick Cheney’s remarks on Iran in his AIPAC speech:

Ladies and gentlemen, one of the basic truths of the world we live in today is that George W. Bush is a man of his word….The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose meaningful consequences. (Applause.) For our part, the United States is keeping all options on the table in addressing the irresponsible conduct of the regime. (Applause.) And we join other nations in sending that regime a clear message: We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

The wiggle room comes from the meaning of the word “we.” It is always possible that the Bush administration could take the position that the use of the word “we” prohibited unilateral US action in the absence of international consensus. But that would not be the action of “a man of his word,” would it? Since the negotiations with the EU and Russia are a farce, when does the next step take place?

UPDATE

Iran responds: let’s get ready to rumble: “The United States has the power to cause harm and pain,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, a senior Iranian delegate to the IAEA. “But the United States is also susceptible to harm and pain. So if that is the path that the U.S. wishes to choose, let the ball roll.”

UPDATE II

The gas is not all in that gasbag Ahmadinejad. According to the US, via Drudge, Iran ha 10 bombs worth of uranium gas:

The United States has alleged that Iran has enough uranium gas to make 10 nuclear weapons and has called for new inspections in the Islamic Republic, a diplomat in Vienna told AFP Wednesday. A senior US official made the claim at a closed-door meeting in Vienna of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the diplomat said. US ambassador Gregory Schulte told the IAEA’s 35-nation board of governors that Iran had failed on every count to meet the watchdog’s call for it to suspend uranium enrichment. Uranium is enriched so it can be used as fuel in a nuclear power reactor or, if enriched further, to make an atomic weapon. Schlulte said Iran had 85 tons of the uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas and said this was enough to make 10 atom bombs, the diplomat reported.

UPDATE III

Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz broke the news (at least it seemed new to us) that Iran has a second. even more clandestine, nuclear program than the one the West is commonly aware of (via Reuters):

Mofaz, who was born in Iran, added that Israel believed the 15-nation Security Council should grant the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N.’s Vienna-based nuclear watchdog, sweeping inspection powers so that it can smoke out any secret nuclear arms-related activities in Iran. “We need to have very deep and large inspections within all the nuclear locations in Iran because Iran has two nuclear programs — one is a covered one and the second is uncovered,” he said.

UPDATE IV

Before it vanishes in the mists of time and memory, we want to make reference to the WaPo article from 8/2/05 that said it would take ten years for Iran to produce nukes:

A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis. The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House.

The NYT had this from its sources a few days ago, implying the better part of a decade before nukes:

According to the analysts, the Iranians need to do repairs and build new machines at a prototype plant before they can begin enriching even modest quantities of uranium. And then, for a decade, they would have to mass produce 100 centrifuges a week to fill the cavernous industrial enrichment halls at Natanz. What is more, the gas meant to feed those machines is plagued by impurities.

Meanwhile Haaretz has a fascinating article with all sorts of detail on hidden nuclear facilities. It makes the chilling claim that uranium enrichment has been going on for a decade in Iran, the event that the NYT said above would have to have taken place “for a decade” before Iran could go nuclear.

Inspectors who examined the plutonium concluded, judging from the amounts found, that the Iranians must have started creating the plutonium in the mid-1990s and not three years ago.

Which timetable is most consistent with the bravado of Ahmadinejad? Perhaps we will find out the reality soon

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 7th, 2006 at 4:39 pm and is filed under General, Left of Left, Religion, War. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.