Battleground Poll: America’s voters are 61% conservative, 34% liberal
The Battleground Poll is “a collaborative bi-partisan survey produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Snell Perry and Associates.” As such, it would appear to have a number of superior qualities, particularly, from our point of view, in trying to get its sample right. We have noted numerous occasions where other polls have oversampled one party or one ideology in order to, in our view, produce pre-cooked results.
The sample used in the Battleground Poll is 35% Democrat, 35% Repubican, which is pretty close to 2004 actual results. Observers with more knowledge about polling than us will have to tell you if the demographics are correct in other aspects. Assuming they are, the poll’s sample points to something rather remarkable, that 61% of the electorate consider themselves somewhat or very conservative, while 34% consider themselves somewhat or very liberal:
The numerical superiority of conservative to liberals in the Battleground Poll sample does not translate into one-sidedness, for example a cakewalk for the GOP. Ed Goeas, the GOP pollster, says in his commentary that Democrats “have a better than even chance of winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and…control of the Senate is also at risk.” Celinda Lake, in her commentary, likewise notes problems for her side: “Democrats continue to have a double-digit deficit on safeguarding America from a terrorist threat.”
This even-handedness, combined with the honesty in the party identification numbers, give us a sense that the liberal / conservative numbers may be correct. If so, and if the Democrats do take control of Congress, we may have a most peculiar two years ahead, given that the leadership of the Democratic Party comes mostly from the Left.
October 16th, 2006 at 1:50 pm
So why don’t the moderares and unsures get resuscitated?
October 16th, 2006 at 5:56 pm
The only way to makes sense of this is that essentially all liberals are registered Democrats while a significant number of conservatives are not Republicans. While I can accept that conservatives – generally being less enamored of ideology – would eschew party identification, it still strikes me as an odd finding.
Of course, the Republicans haven’t exactly lived up to their promises to Conservatives either…
October 18th, 2006 at 9:58 am
[...] Update: One really has to questions polls which ignore the Battleground Poll’s finding that the country is 61% conservative verses 34% liberal. Without an accurate model the polls are junk. – End Update. [...]