First a dawa, now an explicit ultimatum
Several months ago, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered a dawa to President Bush, inviting him and America to convert to Islam. He has sent letters to other leaders as well; here is one to Angela Merkel. The dawa tradition dates from Mohammed himself and is part of what we call the Genius of Jihad — the idea that the sword of Islam is merciless, but all is instantly forgiven of even the most awful human if he will submit to true religion. Having delivered his invitations, Ahmadinejad has now moved onto the next phase, “explicitly” delivering “an ultimatum.”
AP:
Across Iran, millions took to the streets on “Al-Quds Day,” — Arabic for Jerusalem — a national holiday established by the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to assert Muslim claims on the holy city. Rallies took place in Cairo, Beirut, Baghdad and elsewhere across the Islamic world.
Ahmadinejad, speaking to a crowd of hundreds of thousands in Tehran, threatened any country that supports Israel, and said the U.S. and its allies had “imposed a group of terrorists” on the region by their support of the Jewish state. “It is in your own interest to distance yourself from these criminals… This is an ultimatum. Don’t complain tomorrow,” he cautioned. “Nations will take revenge.”
AFP:
“This regime (Israel) will be gone, definitely,” Ahmadinejad, who has previously called for Israel to be “wiped from the map” and described the Holocaust as a myth, told the protestors. “You (the Western powers) should know that any government that stands by the Zionist regime from now on will not see any result but the hatred of the people,” he added. “The wrath of the region’s people is boiling.”
“Efforts to stabilise this fraudulent regime have completely failed, thank God … This regime has lost the rationale of its existence,” the president said. Ahmadinejad described his warning as an “ultimatum” for Western powers. “You should not complain that we did not give a warning. We are saying this explicitly now.”
“If a hurricane starts be rest assured that the dimensions of this hurricane will not be limited to the geographic borders of Palestine,” he added. “This regime (Israel) will take its supporters to the bottom of the swamp.” “The best solution is for you to take all the components of the regime and take it away,” Ahmadinejad said.
This fellow means what he says, and he is using a playbook totally different from the West’s. His is 1400 years old.
October 21st, 2006 at 10:17 am
Analysis of an adversary’s actions requires intelligence on two topics: Capabilities and intentions. Iran’s multiple dawas and this ultimatum, among other things, are not just intelligence but a clear STATEMENT of intent. What is lacking here is knowledge of their capabilities. Why the ultimatum now? It is not clear to me that they have the capability to project massive physical or psychological power beyond the Middle East, so what am I missing? What capability do they have that they intend to use? Or is the ultimatum just bluster?
October 22nd, 2006 at 10:34 am
Neil, It makes sense if there is a secret deal btw Iran and the DPRK to sell deliverable nukes to Iran. Clearly, Iran isn’t going to pay billions for duds, so the devices need a proper series of tests before they will be exchanged for cash. We just saw the first test. There will be more if this scenario is right.
Alternatively, Iran could have a massive underground nuke city buried in a hollowed out mountain range, like the Soviets built decades ago. They could be far ahead of where we officially think. Does anyone know of any railroad tunnels in Iran that go through their mountain ranges, where there could be a secret underground railroad switchyard?
Another alternative is bio. There are a lot of nasty diseases native to the middle east, that Americans don’t normally experience. Modifying bugs by genetic engineering is easier to conceal than large nuclear enterprises.