Comments on: First a dawa, now an explicit ultimatum http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/10/20/first-a-dawa-now-an-explicit-ultimatum/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 11:49:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Andrew P http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/10/20/first-a-dawa-now-an-explicit-ultimatum/#comment-265127 Andrew P Sun, 22 Oct 2006 18:34:42 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/10/20/first-a-dawa-now-an-explicit-ultimatum/#comment-265127 Neil, It makes sense if there is a secret deal btw Iran and the DPRK to sell deliverable nukes to Iran. Clearly, Iran isn't going to pay billions for duds, so the devices need a proper series of tests before they will be exchanged for cash. We just saw the first test. There will be more if this scenario is right. Alternatively, Iran could have a massive underground nuke city buried in a hollowed out mountain range, like the Soviets built decades ago. They could be far ahead of where we officially think. Does anyone know of any railroad tunnels in Iran that go through their mountain ranges, where there could be a secret underground railroad switchyard? Another alternative is bio. There are a lot of nasty diseases native to the middle east, that Americans don't normally experience. Modifying bugs by genetic engineering is easier to conceal than large nuclear enterprises. Neil, It makes sense if there is a secret deal btw Iran and the DPRK to sell deliverable nukes to Iran. Clearly, Iran isn’t going to pay billions for duds, so the devices need a proper series of tests before they will be exchanged for cash. We just saw the first test. There will be more if this scenario is right.

Alternatively, Iran could have a massive underground nuke city buried in a hollowed out mountain range, like the Soviets built decades ago. They could be far ahead of where we officially think. Does anyone know of any railroad tunnels in Iran that go through their mountain ranges, where there could be a secret underground railroad switchyard?

Another alternative is bio. There are a lot of nasty diseases native to the middle east, that Americans don’t normally experience. Modifying bugs by genetic engineering is easier to conceal than large nuclear enterprises.

]]> By: Neil http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/10/20/first-a-dawa-now-an-explicit-ultimatum/#comment-264889 Neil Sat, 21 Oct 2006 18:17:02 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/10/20/first-a-dawa-now-an-explicit-ultimatum/#comment-264889 Analysis of an adversary's actions requires intelligence on two topics: Capabilities and intentions. Iran's multiple dawas and this ultimatum, among other things, are not just intelligence but a clear STATEMENT of intent. What is lacking here is knowledge of their capabilities. Why the ultimatum now? It is not clear to me that they have the capability to project massive physical or psychological power beyond the Middle East, so what am I missing? What capability do they have that they intend to use? Or is the ultimatum just bluster? Analysis of an adversary’s actions requires intelligence on two topics: Capabilities and intentions. Iran’s multiple dawas and this ultimatum, among other things, are not just intelligence but a clear STATEMENT of intent. What is lacking here is knowledge of their capabilities. Why the ultimatum now? It is not clear to me that they have the capability to project massive physical or psychological power beyond the Middle East, so what am I missing? What capability do they have that they intend to use? Or is the ultimatum just bluster?

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