In good company
We have been saying for some time that the course of the 2006 election depends upon who actually votes, which we won’t know until after the votes have been counted. Michael Barone:
The samples in most recent polls show a Democratic advantage in party identification—quite different from the 2004 exit poll that showed party identification at 37 percent Republican and 37 percent Democratic. I think there probably has been some shift in party ID since November 2004, but I doubt that it’s as great as those polls suggest. In any case, polls are not good at predicting turnout. Some but not all polls show Democrats to be more “interested” or “certain to vote” or “motivated.” But responses to those questions have not done a good job at projecting turnout in the past, including November 2004. To get a really good idea of turnout, I think we have to wait for elections—or, rather, for the vote to be counted.
UPDATE
Meanwhile, a prediction from Stuart Rothenberg that is noteworthy for its boldness: a 45-60 seat pickup for Democrats (via TKS):
The national political environment currently is worse than it was in 1994, when the Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats and 10 governorships, and when Republicans won GOP control of the House for the first time in decades. You heard me right: It’s worse this year than it was in 1994, when voters were dissatisfied with the first two years of the Bill Clinton presidency…
With the national environment being as it is — and given the last round of redistricting, which limits possible Democratic gains — Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats, based on historical results. Given how the national mood compares to previous wave years and to the GOP’s 15-seat House majority, Democratic gains almost certainly would fall to the upper end of that range.