Comments on: Of ferrets, handkerchiefs, and bird flu http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/12/18/of-ferrets-handkerchiefs-and-bird-flu/ Fri, 21 Nov 2008 07:00:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Steven Den Beste http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/12/18/of-ferrets-handkerchiefs-and-bird-flu/#comment-290312 Steven Den Beste Tue, 19 Dec 2006 05:37:55 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2006/12/18/of-ferrets-handkerchiefs-and-bird-flu/#comment-290312 Fumento lists two possibilities: a mutation in a strain of flu alread present in humans, and a case where a human contracts two forms of flu simultaneously and they mix their genes. He missed one, and it's pretty important. It actually turns out to be very difficult for humans to contract avian influenza, and likewise very difficult for ducks and geese to get human influenza. But swine can easily get them both. The scenario that Fumento missed is that on farms where humans, ducks, and pigs all live together in close proximity, pigs could simultaneously get avian influenza and human influenza, and the gene mixing could happen in the swine. Then humans could catch the new mixed strain. The dirty little secret of modern epidemiology is that most of the new strains of flu that go around come out of China's collectivized farms, where farmers, ducks, and pigs do indeed live in close proximity. The nation of China doesn't want anyone talking about it, for various reasons, and epidemiologists who want to maintain access to China (in order to track new strains of flu when they arise) don't talk about it much. Fumento lists two possibilities: a mutation in a strain of flu alread present in humans, and a case where a human contracts two forms of flu simultaneously and they mix their genes.

He missed one, and it’s pretty important. It actually turns out to be very difficult for humans to contract avian influenza, and likewise very difficult for ducks and geese to get human influenza. But swine can easily get them both. The scenario that Fumento missed is that on farms where humans, ducks, and pigs all live together in close proximity, pigs could simultaneously get avian influenza and human influenza, and the gene mixing could happen in the swine. Then humans could catch the new mixed strain.

The dirty little secret of modern epidemiology is that most of the new strains of flu that go around come out of China’s collectivized farms, where farmers, ducks, and pigs do indeed live in close proximity. The nation of China doesn’t want anyone talking about it, for various reasons, and epidemiologists who want to maintain access to China (in order to track new strains of flu when they arise) don’t talk about it much.

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