China’s expanding military expenditures and doctrine
The Defense Department’s annual report on China, as summarized by AP in the WSJ. China is apprently spending perhaps $125 billion a year, which would be about a quarter of what the US spends:
The Pentagon said China’s short-term focus remains the Taiwan Straits, where it continues to position more short-range ballistic missiles. But more broadly, the People’s Liberation Army is pursuing a strategy that appears designed to give China a capability to fight wars farther from its shores and to thwart any U.S. advances.
It asserted, for example, that last year the new DF-31 long-range nuclear missile became available for use in a military emergency, even though it apparently is not fully integrated into China’s strategic nuclear force. It said the DF-31, which has enough range to reach Alaska but is not the main Chinese missile targeting the United States, is likely to become fully operational in the near future, if it has not already. “The expanding military capabilities of China’s armed forces are a major factor in changing East Asian military balances,” the report said. “Improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have ramifications far beyond the Asia Pacific region.”
A prominent theme in the Pentagon report is a perceived lack of transparency in Chinese military activities and plans. As it has in the past, the Pentagon said China’s true defense spending is two or three times the publicly announced defense budget, which this year was put at the equivalent of $45 billion. The Pentagon report said actual defense spending, including funds from sources other than the defense budget, is $85 billion to $125 billion.
That the Chinese are rapidly expanding their capabilities, at sea, in space, and in fighting “informatization” wars is evident from the Pentagon report.
As was previously said about the Kitty Hawk incident last fall: “The Chinese are building a credible submarine force which will make it very difficult for the US Navy to maintain sea control dominance in or near coastal waters off of China.” As for air and space, in addition to the DF-31 missile, the Pentagon report discussed China’s successful test of a direct-ascent, anti-satellite weapon. Significantly, the report described the apparent change of China’s military doctrine and planning from one focused “protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning short-duration, high intensity conflicts against high-tech adversaries –- which China refers to as ‘local wars under conditions of informatization’.”
In the 1990’s Deng Xiaoping said: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.” From what we see in the Defense Department report, China is doing an excellent job of implementing Deng Xiaoping’s 24 Character Strategy.
May 26th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Those Americans who think real, dangerous war is what we are fighting against the Moslems are mistaken. The Moslems don’t have a shipyard or jet plane factory worthy of the name among them. Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana contain enough air and naval power between them to destroy every Arab army as a fighting force in a month. New York or Virginia could do it alone.
The United States is a maritime power. The kind of enemy that could hurt us will be able to use missiles, ships, submarines, satellites, aircraft, tanks, and millions of well trained soldiers to fight our expeditionary forces.
Like England a century ago and ourselves 70 years back, we are watching the weapon that will be used against us being forged.
May 27th, 2007 at 8:03 am
Sir,
Thank you for this blog, and keeping your eyes on China. Sometimes, we even go so far as to forget it exists.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:09 am
Unfortunately, America has a history of arming its enemies. In this instance, as in others I won’t mention, we’ve not only armed them, we’ve paid for it.