What is the half-life of a messianic movement?
The Iranian regime is at once paranoid and convinced it is devinely inspired — a pretty dangerous combination. Michael Ledeen on the spate of hostage takiing of Americans by Iran that has been virtually ignored by the MSM:
There are now five American hostages in Iran…The two women — Esfandiari and Azima — were regular visitors to Iran…ranian and Iranian-supported terrorists have been trying unsuccessfully to capture Americans in Iraq for some time (a hostage-taking operation failed last September, for example), but they found that the Americans fought back. They have now snatched unarmed Americans within Iranian borders. Several of them have been charged with espionage.
Esfandiari has been accused of an additional crime: being married to a Jew. In the words of a website closely tied to President Ahmadinejad, Esfandiari is “married to Shaul Bakhash, a Jew, (and) is one of the leading figures in the international Zionist lobby planning the overthrow of the Iranian regime, including the Zionist regime’s plans to attack Iran.” Actually, Esfandiari is one of the leading figures in the intellectual/scholarly opposition to the Bush administration…
Two of the American hostages — Esfandiari and Tajbakhsh — have been charged with attempting to subvert the Islamic Republic and organize a “soft revolution” against the regime. At the same time, the mullahs have launched a new wave of political repression against students, teachers, women, intellectuals and, most recently, scientists. The information ministry, a.k.a. the secret intelligence service, recently declared that any Iranian who attended overseas conferences would automatically fall under suspicion of cooperating with foreign-espionage operations. All these measures are symptomatic of a regime that knows it is hated by most Iranians, and fears a popular uprising…
The mullahs believe that their aggression is divinely sanctioned, that the violence they are unleashing on the region will hasten the return of the 12th Imam, and thus the days of the final judgment of all mankind. Such people cannot be reasoned out of their mission, whatever the utopians at the Department of State may believe.
Messianic movements of the sort led by the Islamic Republic can inspire masses of people, but they are uniquely vulnerable, because any dramatic setback raises a frightening question: Has divine support suddenly been removed? It follows that we should strain to defeat them, primarily by supporting their own gravediggers, the people of Iran. Alas, not even that celebrated warmonger, George W. Bush, has the will to support democratic revolution in Iran…
“Messianic movements…are uniquely vulnerable, because any dramatic setback raises a frightening question: Has divine support suddenly been removed?” Interesting point.
UPDATE
Today’s bonus outrage from you know who:
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who triggered outrage in the West two years ago when he said Israel should be “wiped off the map”, has often referred to the destruction of the Jewish state but says Iran is not a threat. “With God’s help, the countdown button for the destruction of the Zionist regime has been pushed by the hands of the children of Lebanon and Palestine,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech. “By God’s will, we will witness the destruction of this regime in the near future”
One of these days we’ll find out if he really means what he says over and over and over again.