The numbers do not seem to match
The WSJ had a story the other day about real estate problems that was notable for the small numbers of condos it said were in trouble. The Orlando Sentinel has some different figures about the Florida condo bust:
25,000 new condo units, most of them rising in or near Miami’s downtown, will flood an area already saturated with 23,000 condos listed for sale. An additional 40,000 units have been approved, but analysts doubt the majority will break ground…”Miami is the poster child for the condo bust,” said Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting, a real-estate market-analysis firm located in Deerfield Beach. “There are probably only two cities in the world with more construction: Shanghai and Dubai. Unfortunately, there is going to be a lot of foreclosures…, and developers, lenders, title companies and real-estate companies will go under.”…
No one knows how many units speculators bought. But as early as 2004, McCabe and Lew Goodkin of Miami-based Goodkin Consulting warned that up to 70 percent of the condos rising in Miami were being snapped up by people who didn’t plan to hold on to them, much less live in them.
That was evident from the hordes who camped overnight, fought over lottery numbers, even paid homeless men $20 and a pack of cigarettes to hold their places in long lines, all for the chance to put 20 percent deposits on condos that existed only in brochures. The frenzy for some projects was so fevered that some developers raised their prices hourly. “It was a nightmare. Lines around the corner. People screaming into phones. I would look at them, and think, ‘You don’t know what you’re doing,’ ” said Mark Zilbert, president of Zilbert Realty Group.
Many told a similar story: They had a friend who made $100,000 flipping a new condo, and they planned to ride the same wave of escalating prices. All they had to do was put down $60,000 on a $300,000 pre-construction unit and resell it when the value climbed to $400,000 — before the building opened, and before closing and mortgage payments, maintenance fees, insurance and taxes kicked in. That meant anyone could risk $60,000 and pocket $100,000 without actually buying anything.
Some investors were experienced players like Barry Beschel of Aventura. After the dot-com stock-market crash in 2000, he said he had no trouble persuading his buddies to park their money in Miami’s sizzling condo market. “All my guys in New York were like, ‘Yeah, flipping condos in Miami.’…From 2001 to 2005, Beschel said his group bought about 50 pre-construction condos, sometimes 10 or 12 at a time. They would pay about $300 a square foot and, once the building sold out, return the condos to the developer, who would resell them at $350 a square foot. The difference between the original contract price and the new one — $100,000 on a 2,000-square-foot unit — would go to Beschel’s group, minus a commission.
A great business — while it lasts.
UPDATE
Michelle Malkin explains how your friendly neighborhood jihadists can also use the sub-prime mortgage market for fun and profit.