We don’t know whether Pakistan, President Musharraf, or both are out of control, but the urgent tone and content of his comments in declaring virtual martial law are noteworthy. BBC:

“I suspect that Pakistan’s sovereignty is in danger unless timely action is taken…Extremists are roaming around freely in the country, and they are not scared of law-enforcement agencies…Kindly understand the criticality of the situation in Pakistan and around Pakistan. Pakistan is on the verge of destabilisation…Inaction at this moment is suicide for Pakistan and I cannot allow this country to commit suicide.”…

Gen Musharraf’s address echoed the text of the declaration of emergency rule, which opens with a reference to the “grave threat” posed by the “visible ascendancy in the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks”.

2007 was said to be Pakistan’s Year of Tourism, but it has morphed into something else entirely. From the antics of Rage Boy to the emptying out of the terrorist camps in the Taliban northwest to the bloody siege of the Red Mosque, Pakistan has indeed appeared to become increasingly unstable.

The Washington Post quoted an analyst who said that Musharraf himself was the primary problem:

“He’s pretty much carrying out a second coup,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, an analyst. “For all practical purposes, it is direct military rule. And he becomes the supreme ruler of Pakistan. There’s no constitutional limit on him because he’s set aside the constitution.” Rizvi said that Musharraf’s stated reasons for declaring an emergency were misleading. “It has nothing to do with the insurgency,” he said. “It has to do with Musharraf’s political survival.”

On the other hand, the WSJ cited some serious new developments among Islamists in the course of reporting the remarks of Musharraf:

“I say with sorrow that some elements are creating hurdles in the way of democracy,” said Gen. Musharraf, who was wearing civilian clothes and spoke firmly and calmly. “I think this chaos is being created for personal interests and to harm Pakistan.” He claimed that 61 terrorists have been freed on order from the court — an apparent reference to a case that has been led by the now-deposed chief justice to press authorities over suspects held by intelligence agencies without charge. “Extremists are openly roaming,” he said. “And no one knows whether any of the these freed men were behind recent bomb attacks.”…

Earlier Saturday, militants said they captured two police stations and 120 security personnel in northwest Pakistan, the latest humiliation for Pakistan’s army, which is one of the most widely respected institutions in the country. But it has been singularly unable to quell a rise in Islamist violence that has moved beyond the lawless border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan and into formerly peaceful states, big cities and even military compounds. The wave of violence has demoralized Pakistan’s army and raised fears of how unstable nuclear-armed Pakistan may become.

It seem unclear how to apportion blame in the current situation, but, beyond that, it does seem clear enough that Pakistan is in a genuine crisis, and no outcome looks particularly promising at the moment.

UPDATE

These comments from Jeffrey Imm at the Counterterrorism Blog are perhaps apt:

there remains a very real battle for the identity of Pakistan between Islamists and moderates, a battle in which the Islamists are gaining ground and influence in this nuclear nation. The Pakistan Taliban’s goal of enforcing Islamist Shariah throughout Pakistan is one that a majority of Pakistanis would agree with based on recent public opinion polls….

the Taliban continue their efforts of enforcing Islamism throughout Pakistan unchecked. On Friday, a bomb blast destroyed 14 shops in Peshawar market selling selling CDs, TV sets and music albums. Bombing of non-Islamist businesses and threatening the lives of non-Muslims if they do not cover to Islam is becoming a relatively routine occurrence in Swat and other parts of the NWFP in Pakistan.

The failure of American leadership to have a policy on Islamism has prevented the ability to provide a pro-active coherent policy in Pakistan that addresses both the strategic issues of pro-Islamist Pakistani public sentiment along with support in areas of the government and public for the Taliban, as well as the tactical issues of fighting “extremists” in Afghanistan who have found safe haven in NWFP in Pakistan.

While U.S. Admiral William J. Fallon has told Pakistan President Musharraf that an emergency rule order would risk U.S. support to his military, the U.S. military support to Pakistan has limited long-term impact without addressing the Islamist public opinion and support in Pakistan for the Taliban and other Islamist organizations. The current situation in Pakistan illustrates the train wreck of pursuing tactical operations in fighting “extremists” without a strategy to clearly define the enemy and to define a U.S. policy on Jihad and Islamism.

Perhaps it is not just Musharraf and/or Pakistan that are out of control. HT:MM

This entry was posted on Saturday, November 3rd, 2007 at 8:00 pm and is filed under General, Polling, Religion, War. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.