Comments on: Phases of a credit crunch http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2007/12/09/phases-of-a-credit-crunch/ Fri, 09 Jan 2009 23:17:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Walter Zweifler http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2007/12/09/phases-of-a-credit-crunch/#comment-302267 Walter Zweifler Wed, 02 Jan 2008 00:30:20 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2007/12/09/phases-of-a-credit-crunch/#comment-302267 Whatever phase number you want to assign to it- we are entering a period of counterparty defaults in distressed morrgage debt derivatives. Buying distressed debt when they hit bottom must be the contrarian opportunity of all investors who were born after 1929. We would like to talk to others who share our enthusiasm for this investment strategy! Whatever phase number you want to assign to it- we are entering a period of counterparty defaults in distressed morrgage debt derivatives. Buying distressed debt when they hit bottom must be the contrarian opportunity of all investors who were born after 1929. We would like to talk to others who share our enthusiasm for this investment strategy!

]]> By: spongeworthy_us http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2007/12/09/phases-of-a-credit-crunch/#comment-302249 spongeworthy_us Thu, 27 Dec 2007 18:58:58 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2007/12/09/phases-of-a-credit-crunch/#comment-302249 Great article until you said: "...in a period with objectively strong economic statistics..." The problem with those "objectively strong statistics" is they are in fact books as well-cooked as anything produced by Worldcom or Enron. Those statistics have systematically been modified and massaged to allow whoever is currently in power to legislate and execute policy however best benefits their supporters. Some great examples are the inflation measures, which are entirely belied by the price of gold. After all, most inflation measures pretend like energy, food and housing don't contribute to price inflation and we all know those three sectors have recently experienced sharp upward increases in the last 10 years. So maybe the people who are shorting prosperity have very real, very reliable indicators telling them the stuff is about to hit the fan, "objectively strong statistics" notwithstanding. Great article until you said:

“…in a period with objectively strong economic statistics…”

The problem with those “objectively strong statistics” is they are in fact books as well-cooked as anything produced by Worldcom or Enron. Those statistics have systematically been modified and massaged to allow whoever is currently in power to legislate and execute policy however best benefits their supporters. Some great examples are the inflation measures, which are entirely belied by the price of gold. After all, most inflation measures pretend like energy, food and housing don’t contribute to price inflation and we all know those three sectors have recently experienced sharp upward increases in the last 10 years.

So maybe the people who are shorting prosperity have very real, very reliable indicators telling them the stuff is about to hit the fan, “objectively strong statistics” notwithstanding.

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