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	<title>Comments on: It&#8217;s not just about $100 oil</title>
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	<link>http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/03/its-not-just-about-100-oil/</link>
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	<pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:44:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: gs</title>
		<link>http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/03/its-not-just-about-100-oil/#comment-302287</link>
		<dc:creator>gs</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Jan 2008 21:58:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/03/its-not-just-about-100-oil/#comment-302287</guid>
		<description>Key commodity prices may well be in a speculative bubble, but, like many bubbles, this one apparently began with a legitimate rationale.

From the &lt;a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119941453085566759.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks&#38;apl=y&#38;r=150548" rel="nofollow"&gt;WSJ&lt;/a&gt; (subscription required):&lt;blockquote&gt;Since 2001 the dollar price of oil and gold have run in almost perfect tandem (see nearby chart). The gold price has risen 239% since 2001, while the oil price has risen 267%. This means that if the dollar had remained "as good as gold" since 2001, oil today would be selling at about $30 a barrel, not $99. Gold has traditionally been a rough proxy for the price level, so the decline of the dollar against gold and oil suggests a U.S. monetary that is supplying too many dollars.

We would add that the dollar price of nearly all commodities -- from wheat to corn to copper to silver -- are also surging, a further sign of a weakening currency. On Wednesday alone the price of wheat and soybeans increased 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. That follows a 75% increase in their price in 2007 -- which ran ahead of the oil price, which gained a mere 57% for the year. Neither OPEC nor China caused food commodity prices to rise like this. The main culprit here is a global loss of confidence in Federal Reserve policy and the dollar.&lt;/blockquote&gt;The &lt;a href="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ED-AG911_1oilgo_20080103221647.gif" rel="nofollow"&gt;graph&lt;/a&gt; from the article is shockingly self-explanatory; accessing it does not require a subscription.

Drudge &lt;a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3137506.ece" rel="nofollow"&gt;links&lt;/a&gt; to&lt;blockquote&gt;LIVING standards in Britain are set to rise above those in America for the first time since the 19th century, according to a report by the respected Oxford Economics consultancy.&lt;/blockquote&gt;Whether or not this conclusion is valid, today I do not dismiss it out of hand; in previous decades, I would have.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Key commodity prices may well be in a speculative bubble, but, like many bubbles, this one apparently began with a legitimate rationale.</p>
<p>From the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119941453085566759.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks&amp;apl=y&amp;r=150548" rel="nofollow">WSJ</a> (subscription required):<br />
<blockquote>Since 2001 the dollar price of oil and gold have run in almost perfect tandem (see nearby chart). The gold price has risen 239% since 2001, while the oil price has risen 267%. This means that if the dollar had remained &#8220;as good as gold&#8221; since 2001, oil today would be selling at about $30 a barrel, not $99. Gold has traditionally been a rough proxy for the price level, so the decline of the dollar against gold and oil suggests a U.S. monetary that is supplying too many dollars.</p>
<p>We would add that the dollar price of nearly all commodities &#8212; from wheat to corn to copper to silver &#8212; are also surging, a further sign of a weakening currency. On Wednesday alone the price of wheat and soybeans increased 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. That follows a 75% increase in their price in 2007 &#8212; which ran ahead of the oil price, which gained a mere 57% for the year. Neither OPEC nor China caused food commodity prices to rise like this. The main culprit here is a global loss of confidence in Federal Reserve policy and the dollar.</p></blockquote>
<p>The <a href="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ED-AG911_1oilgo_20080103221647.gif" rel="nofollow">graph</a> from the article is shockingly self-explanatory; accessing it does not require a subscription.</p>
<p>Drudge <a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3137506.ece" rel="nofollow">links</a> to<br />
<blockquote>LIVING standards in Britain are set to rise above those in America for the first time since the 19th century, according to a report by the respected Oxford Economics consultancy.</p></blockquote>
<p>Whether or not this conclusion is valid, today I do not dismiss it out of hand; in previous decades, I would have.</p>
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		<title>By: JMB</title>
		<link>http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/03/its-not-just-about-100-oil/#comment-302275</link>
		<dc:creator>JMB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:36:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/03/its-not-just-about-100-oil/#comment-302275</guid>
		<description>Investment is difficult when it relies, not on a particular businesses practices, but on what some bureaucrat somewhere is going to decide is sound economic policy--for the next five minutes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Investment is difficult when it relies, not on a particular businesses practices, but on what some bureaucrat somewhere is going to decide is sound economic policy&#8211;for the next five minutes.</p>
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