Comments on: Predictions, and results http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 11:49:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: MarkD http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302339 MarkD Wed, 23 Jan 2008 15:48:25 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302339 What we lack, as noted, is data. Some number of loans are in trouble. That is the maximum this damage can amount to, and the assets still exist and are worth something. At least this isn't like an investment in an internet startup that fizzled to zero. Lots of people will be hurt, but they are people who bought a house they couldn't afford with a loan they couldn't repay. Freedom includes the freedom to make mistakes. I'm on the side of the insiders. My 401K allocations and future investments remain the same. Might 2008 be a bad year? Yes, it sure looks that way. I've a long way to go till retirement, so that's my horizon. What we lack, as noted, is data. Some number of loans are in trouble. That is the maximum this damage can amount to, and the assets still exist and are worth something. At least this isn’t like an investment in an internet startup that fizzled to zero. Lots of people will be hurt, but they are people who bought a house they couldn’t afford with a loan they couldn’t repay. Freedom includes the freedom to make mistakes.

I’m on the side of the insiders. My 401K allocations and future investments remain the same. Might 2008 be a bad year? Yes, it sure looks that way. I’ve a long way to go till retirement, so that’s my horizon.

]]> By: gs http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302337 gs Tue, 22 Jan 2008 23:49:54 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302337 <a href="http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/01/department-of-unknown-statistics/" rel="nofollow">Three weeks ago</a>, I took uneasy refuge in the fact that<blockquote>...corporate insiders continue to buy like drunken sailors.</blockquote>The most recent tracking newsletter reports a change: now insiders are buying like a drunken sailor who just won the lottery. Three weeks ago, I took uneasy refuge in the fact that
…corporate insiders continue to buy like drunken sailors.

The most recent tracking newsletter reports a change: now insiders are buying like a drunken sailor who just won the lottery.

]]> By: Canucklehead http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302334 Canucklehead Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:45:38 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302334 I can accept Cramer's point of view if we knew the full extent of the sub-prime impact on the banking institutions. Since we don't, and the banks have clearly been leaking out information in dribs and drabs, the Fed needs to march in step with the ethics of the banking industry. We aren't playing Parker Brothers' "Monopoly" here. The banking system needs to learn to support themselves and not rely on a Greenspan "Get Out of Jail Free" card. I don't think a large rate cut in December would have been good for the market. A big cut would have generated blog discussions about "How Bad is It Really? Look at What the Fed Did!". You would have had panic. Jim Cramer can be a Monday Morning Quarterback on this. He is entitled to his opinion. Maybe he should run for office? Maybe he shouldn't... I can accept Cramer’s point of view if we knew the full extent of the sub-prime impact on the banking institutions. Since we don’t, and the banks have clearly been leaking out information in dribs and drabs, the Fed needs to march in step with the ethics of the banking industry.

We aren’t playing Parker Brothers’ “Monopoly” here. The banking system needs to learn to support themselves and not rely on a Greenspan “Get Out of Jail Free” card.

I don’t think a large rate cut in December would have been good for the market. A big cut would have generated blog discussions about “How Bad is It Really? Look at What the Fed Did!”. You would have had panic.

Jim Cramer can be a Monday Morning Quarterback on this. He is entitled to his opinion. Maybe he should run for office? Maybe he shouldn’t…

]]> By: gs http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302333 gs Tue, 22 Jan 2008 15:46:34 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/01/22/predictions-and-results/#comment-302333 At the moment, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe" rel="nofollow">European</a> markets are rebounding. The S&P 500 is around 1310 (down about 1%); the futures were down over 5% <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWEB266320080122?rpc=44" rel="nofollow">overnight</a>. At the moment, European markets are rebounding. The S&P 500 is around 1310 (down about 1%); the futures were down over 5% overnight.

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