Yet more predictions
The indefatigably upbeat Hugh Hewitt talks about the election. We’ll note this for future reference, in part because of the jarring certitude of phrases like “can and will” in this unusual political year:
Democrats seem poised to discharge the Clintons without the possibility of recall. Not since the 1980 send-off of Ted Kennedy has a party’s rebuke been so unexpected, or so final. Hillary will probably become the new Teddy K. — a lioness of the Senate, serving there until the end of days for most of us. She will even enjoy and perhaps earn a unique sort of authority, an uber “been-there-done-that” wisdom. If she ever writes a candid book, it will be riveting. Bill will hang on at the edges of the national consciousness…
President McCain will deploy him as needed around the globe. He’s a formidable, talented and always interesting presence on the world stage. But their days as the country’s #1 power couple seem to be nearing its end. Senator McCain can and will beat Senator Obama because — not so deep down — the country knows we are in a life-or-death struggle with the jihadists and we cannot turn the country’s safety over to a reality-denying three-year senator…
Democrats believe on the basis of crowds and fund-raising receipts, that at least Obama has a chance.
“Democrats believe…that at least Obama has a chance.” Since Rasmussen has him ahead of McCain in the electoral college by 284 - 229, it would appear, at least as of this writing, to be a pretty good chance indeed.
Michael Barone says that you can throw away your red and blue maps in this election: “Many votes that went Democratic in 2000 and 2004 are available to McCain. Many votes that went Republican in 2000 and 2004 are available to Obama. And many of the new voters surging into the electorate may be available to both candidates.” We’ll just have to see about that last point. Frank Rich, who kind of likes McCain, but will obviously vote for his opponent, says that McCain mimics Senator Clinton’s “tone-deaf contempt for Mr. Obama’s cultural appeal.” That seems a bit unfair, but it is certainly true that there is a generational issue in play that currently seems to have a good deal of power and impact.
As of this moment, we think that the debates between the candidates this fall might be of great importance. In 2004, it looked like George Bush was potentially on a roll (to a much bigger win than he achieved) until the first debate, which he lost, rather badly in retrospect. In that debate, Gorge Bush “looked bad” and exhibited an “annoyed smirk” while John Kerry looked and acted Presidential from the get-go, which was precisely what he needed to do after a very good September for Bush. The debates this fall will be one of the first times that voters will be able to make a side-by-side comparison of the candidates, in an atmosphere of peculiarly compelling stagecraft. We won’t be surprised if the viewership of the first debate sets records, or if that debate itself strongly influences the outcome of the election.