End of the beginning

The atmosphere appears to have changed, and for the positive. The Fed has stopped dawdling, and has reduced interest rates to within earshot of their lows, the Treasury has become engaged in solving some problems, and at least one market crash was (barely) avoided at 11:59:59, when Bear Stearns was bailed out with no time to spare, and at a shocking value. We’re not saying that things can’t go lower, but frankly we would not be surprised if markets and the dollar begin to firm, in a jagged way of course, from here. The first step is to admit that there’s a problem, and this would seem to have been accomplished this week.

One Response to “End of the beginning”

  1. gs Says:

    Here’s another straw in the wind:

    COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — The subprime mortgage crisis has yielded at least one benefit for states: Mortgage-related investments have become so cheap that they are luring some pension funds to buy.

    Retirement systems in South Carolina and Pennsylvania are nibbling at the securities, betting that they have been beaten down so much that the ones with good credit ratings could yield strong returns later.

    But the buying this time is very tentative, and may not presage a broader turnaround in these securities.

    I don’t have any confidence one way or the other whether this indicates formation of a bottom, but IMHO the very tentativeness of the buying might be perversely encouraging.

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