Stresses and strains increasing in the eurozone
A weak currency has its problems. So does a strong one. Telegraph:
Momentum traders have blithely ignored last week’s accord by the G7 powers, which described “sharp fluctuations in major currencies” as a threat to economic and financial stability. The euro has surged to fresh records this week, touching $1.5982 against the dollar and £0.8098 against sterling yesterday…
Otmar Issing, the ECB’s former ‘High Priest’, said the single currency had started well but could face a “disastrous outcome” if the eurozone failed to embrace a flexible market system. “The ’single-size’ monetary policy would simply not fit at all. In such a scenario, the single currency would risk straining cohesion ” he warned in a new book, ‘The Euro’.
This is already occurring. North and South have diverged further. While Germany and Holland have prospered under the strong euro, most of southern Europe and Ireland is in trouble. Current account deficits have reached 9.2pc of GDP in Spain and may touch 15pc in Greece. The European Commission’s economists fear that the loss of competitiveness against Germany over the last decade may have passed the point of no return. At best, these countries face years of belt-tightening as their property booms deflate…
A key reason for the 30pc rise in the euro against the dollar over the last two years has been the move by Asia central banks and Mid-East wealth funds to parking huge sums of newly acquired wealth in European bonds as an alternative to the dollar.
BNP Paribas said Asian surplus countries and commodity exporters have accumulated $1,160bn in reserves over the last year alone. US Treasury data shows that only 19pc of this was invested in dollar assets. This is a sharp break with past practice. A large chunk of the money was invested in euro-zone securities. The question is whether China, Saudi Arabia, and others, have now reached euro saturation.
We noted the stresses in the eurozone a few years ago, and they seem to be getting worse. The European Central Bank recently revealed, for example, that foreign direct investment (FDI) into the eurozone has contracted by €269bn over the last two years. It’s getting hard to keep track of all the stresses in the financial system.