The undecided voters
Pollster Frank Luntz says that his research indicates that the 2008 election results will depend on the 20% of voters “who reject partisanship because it’s polarizing and those who denounce ideology because it’s limiting.” They are middle age, middle income, middle of the road, and often located in mid-America:
fully 80% of Americans give at least one of the candidates a passing or failing grade, according to polling that I’ve done — and they are breaking relatively evenly for McCain and Obama. That leaves 20% floating around like rowboats looking for a dock slip. According to the website RealClearPolitics, the average of national polls has Obama beating McCain 47% to 43%, with just 10% seemingly undecided or uncommitted.
But the real floating vote is twice that number because it includes people with a slight preference, not just those with no preference at all. And it is that 20%, not the outspoken partisans on either side, that will decide this historic election…Polls and focus groups suggest that they vote against, not for; they are rejecters, not embracers — and the candidate they reject the least is the candidate they will ultimately support…A floating voter is genuinely 50-50.
Who are these voters? Think of the political equation 4M + 2M: middle age, middle income, middle of the road and mid-America, plus Missouri and Michigan…Families with incomes of about $50,000 a year — the national average — are highly pessimistic and negative about the direction of the country and the condition of the economy. From 1994 through 2004, Republicans tended to have a narrow advantage among these floating voters, allowing the GOP to capture and maintain control of Congress for the decade. But they returned to the Democratic fold in the 2006 campaign and are leaning Democratic this year. They despise President Bush’s economic policies and are most certainly “change” voters, but tax increases are the kind of change they will eagerly vote against….
What’s the best message for floaters? In a word, empathy…”Yes we can” is certainly appealing, but “yes we will” is even better. And a declaration that “there are some things more important than an election” will win their votes as well as their hearts.
We continue to believe that using the tackling of high gas prices as a metaphor for a Can-Do America capable of solving its own problems is a pretty good idea for a candidate, and Mr. Luntz’s polling is consistent with that. “Vote for the doers, not the suers,” and so forth.