Apparently a well planned and executed invasion
The New York Times reported that “armored vehicles and troops had overrun a military base in the Georgian town of Senaki, 25 miles south of the Abkhazian border, suggesting that Russian troops had already begun to move south from the enclave into Georgia proper.” Senaki is an important location (see this, for example) and has nothing whatsoever to do with South Ossetia, supposedly the rationale for the Russian military activities. The Russian presence in Senaki has a number of implications, as Stratfor noted:
Senaki sits astride a railroad juncture that links the rest of the country not only to Abkhazia, but to Georgia’s largest port: Poti. The Russians have already bombed Poti several times, but taking Senaki completely removes the port from the equation…
Samtredia is only an hour’s march from Senaki. Samtredia sits astride the Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa oil pipeline, transit fees from which are a major portion of Georgia’s economic wherewithal…Should Samtredia fall, Russia will have, in effect, enacted a naval blockade of Georgia without using its navy. The city is also the only land link of any meaningful size to Turkey…the capture of Samtredia effectively blocks any potential land-based reinforcements from reaching Georgia via Turkey…
there is only one road and rail line that leads east from Samtredia to the rest of the country. This transport corridor is, in essence, the backbone of the entire country. Should Samtredia fall, there is really nothing that can be done — by Georgia or anyone else — to stop the Russians from taking over Georgia outright, one piece at a time, at their leisure. In essence, the Russians are a heartbeat away from being able to dictate terms to the Georgians without even glancing in the direction of Tbilisi.
Taking Senaki and Samtredia would appear to give Russia effective control of Georgia, and of course the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. This appears to be a well planned and executed invasion of Georgia by Russia, designed to send a great number of clear messages to friend and foe alike.
Vladimir Putin said today on TV: “The world has changed since the Cold War,” referring to the US’s ability to protect the “scoundrel” Saakashvili, as Ronald Reagan protected another “scoundrel” in the 1980′s. In some ways of course, current Russian actions seem to be precisely a return to elements of the Cold War. But other things have changed. Our military is a half the size it was during the Reagan administration.
August 12th, 2008 at 2:57 am
Bush’s recent statement is here. The White House site also has a video.
Wretchard offers his usual clear-eyed insight and, notwithstanding the armchair generalissimos among them, I found his commenters worthwhile. For example, one asks what the US intelligence community was doing during the Russian build-up, which begs the question of what that community is good for going forward.
This is pathetic (see also Bush’s gaffe):
(Cf. also Bush’s gaffe in the statement mentioned above.) It pains me to say this when my country is in a confrontation, but why the devil are our diplomats publicly quoting confidential discussions?! Protocol exists for a reason; some of it is silly and anachronistic, but some of it is important. (Hey, we’re the good guys and we’re for freedom and stuff. That’s alright then. Nevermind.)
The WaPo piece I just linked quotes McCain as calling for revisiting the decision to withhold NATO membership with Georgia. I was unpersuaded because the degree of our national interest is not clear to me. Remarkably, McCain’s full statement addresses the point. I’m still unpersuaded, but my opinion of McCain has risen. Even if I don’t agree, I can support a President who demonstrates competence and policy coherence.
August 12th, 2008 at 5:00 am
Well, it’s clear that there’s growing inefficiencies in all sovereign oil infrastruture operations, which account’s for over 85% of the oil extant in the market. This might be only one way to delay the inevitable day of reckoning. Eric Hoffer once remarked that maintenance was the key to understanding the power of the West. One day we may have to step in again, if only to ensure supply continuety. Surrogates will undoubtedly supply the catalyst, and we might have to provide the follow up however messy it will turn out. Will we have the stomach for it? Interesting times. Best Regards Keith