We can look forward to more of this, as long as we are so dependent
VDH talks about oil and power in his excellent review of the messages sent by Russia in its long and well planned invasion of Georgia:
We talk endlessly about “soft” and “hard” power as if humanitarian jawboning, energized by economic incentives or sanctions, is the antithesis to mindless military power. In truth, there is soft power, hard power, and power-power — the latter being the enormous advantages held by energy rich, oil-exporting states. Take away oil and Saudi Arabia would be the world’s rogue state, with its medieval practice of gender apartheid. Take away oil and Ahmadinejad is analogous to a run-of-the-mill central African thug. Take away oil, and Chavez is one of Ronald Reagan’s proverbial tinhorn dictators.
Russia understands that Europe needs its natural gas, that the U.S. not only must be aware of its own oil dependency, but, more importantly, the ripples of its military on the fragility of world oil supplies, especially the effects upon China, Europe, India, and Japan. When one factors in Russian oil and gas reserves, a pipeline through Georgia, the oil dependency of potential critics of Putin, and the cash garnered by oil exports, then we understand once again that power-power is beginning to trump both its hard and soft alternatives. Military intervention is out of the question. Economic sanctions, given Russia’s oil and Europe’s need for it, are a pipe dream.
The lack of greater energy self-sufficiency is arguably the foremost national security issue facing the United States. Even if Europe were not pacifist, it is held hostage to Russia due to its energy needs. The US imports 70% of its oil; not fixing this constitutes gross negligence and a shocking level of irresponsibility on the part of the American political establishment.