Comments on: Things we didn’t want to learn about http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/08/28/things-we-didnt-want-to-learn-about/ Sat, 10 Jan 2009 03:37:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Steven Den Beste http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/08/28/things-we-didnt-want-to-learn-about/#comment-313602 Steven Den Beste Sat, 30 Aug 2008 03:59:18 +0000 http://www.dinocrat.com/?p=6725#comment-313602 As always, it seems, Stratfor's evaluation of the situation is less impressive than they like to pretend. Certainly it's true that ship movement into and out of the Black Sea is easily monitored from Turkey, but even if it weren't the Russians have spy satellites and I'm sure that they routinely monitor the movements of all our big navy ship everywhere in the world. The only ships they couldn't track would be submarines. As to that treaty, the Russians are not really in a very good position to demand compliance with any international agreements right now, just having broken several themselves. And if someone does violate the Montreux Convention, what are they going to do about it? Ignore it. Scream about it. Attack. Those are their choices. They'll pick #2, and if someone (NATO) is deliberately violating the Montreux Convention, they'll go right on violating the Convention. As always, it seems, Stratfor’s evaluation of the situation is less impressive than they like to pretend. Certainly it’s true that ship movement into and out of the Black Sea is easily monitored from Turkey, but even if it weren’t the Russians have spy satellites and I’m sure that they routinely monitor the movements of all our big navy ship everywhere in the world. The only ships they couldn’t track would be submarines.

As to that treaty, the Russians are not really in a very good position to demand compliance with any international agreements right now, just having broken several themselves. And if someone does violate the Montreux Convention, what are they going to do about it?

Ignore it.
Scream about it.
Attack.

Those are their choices. They’ll pick #2, and if someone (NATO) is deliberately violating the Montreux Convention, they’ll go right on violating the Convention.

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