Leading indicator?
Zogby‘s current polling data suggest an Obama “blowout,” similar to Reagan’s victory over Carter:
time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.
We have no idea if these numbers are correct or not, but certain of them look a little odd. A footnote on the methodology of the poll sheds very little light on what the poll’s internals actually look like.
October 23rd, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Given Zogby’s track record, I’m going to vote anyway.
October 23rd, 2008 at 7:05 pm
his cycle should kill interest in polling, but of course it will not. The polls have simultaneously shown a 10 point lead and a near draw. Polls regularly have 8-10 points swings in a matter of weeks. I don\’t personally know anybody who is truly undecided. And they decided long ago. The polls are all over the place and I just don\’t believe that the electorate is. A huge portion were already decided before the candidates were nominated including me. Are there really millions of people who are going back and forth between these two candidates from week to week…highly unlikely. The swings are measuring the accuracy of polling only I suspect.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:52 pm
If this were true, why would Sarah draw such large ratings numbers on SNL? If there was going to be a blowout, why bother watching her? A blowout means Sarah has no “presence” (in the British tense).
Sarah’s SNL ratings numbers were higher (14 million) than any of the network news shows (according to Drudge).
CBS News – 5.9 million
NBC News – 7.8 million
ABC News – 7.6 million
http://www.drudgereportarchives.com/data/2008/10/22/20081022_134709_flashnf.htm