Maybe fundamentals, maybe something else

Bloomberg said that “jobless claims jumped and the shrinking economy crushed earnings at companies from Blackstone Group Inc. to News Corp,” and that these events led to this performance by the market:

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 5 percent to 904.9, extending its two-day loss to 10 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 443.48 points, or 4.9 percent, to 8,695.79. The Russell 2000 Index of small U.S. companies declined 3.6 percent to 495.92. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets lost 6.2 percent to 921.87.

The two-day tumble wiped out more than half of the S&P 500′s rebound from a five-year low on Oct. 27. An industry report showing an unexpected decline in sales at U.S. chain stores in October also weighed on stocks as 25 of 27 companies in the S&P 500 Retailing Index slumped…The S&P 500 is down 38 percent this year, the steepest annual retreat since 1937. The benchmark for U.S. equities has plunged 42 percent since its record in October 2007

Of course this precipitous and record decline in stock prices could be due to the problems suggested by Bloomberg, but there is another possibility as well. The Carter administration appointed one of the worst Treasury Secretaries in US history, whereas the Clinton administration enjoyed a Treasury Secretary who reined in certain of the excessive campaign promises of the President. Could it be that a substantial portion of the current decline is due to uncertainty about which sort of financial officials the next administration is inclined to appoint?

4 Responses to “Maybe fundamentals, maybe something else”

  1. Canucklehead Says:

    If you read Cody Willard, over at FOX Business, you will see that he has been talking for some time about a trading range of 7000 to 9500 in the Dow. The Dow hit 9500 just before the vote on Tuesday. It is now on it’s way down. The trading range idea seems to fit.

    There are no expected “significant upside” stories on the horizon. We will have to wait to see about the “significant downside” stories. Around the time of Obama’s inauguration we will get 4 th quarter stories on the economy. I expect these will be significantly negative. You should see the market sell-off in the middle to the end of January.

    Obama is positioning himself to be “George Bush Lite”.

  2. Canucklehead Says:

    Here is something to read:

    http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=16293&keywords=soros

  3. Canucklehead Says:

    Here is some more:

    http://www.frontpagemag.com/articles/Read.aspx?GUID=1C995DDB-9F7D-4EB7-83A2-5304F950EB41

  4. gs Says:

    The S&P 500 closed at 849 on October 27, rose to 1006 on November 4, and fell back to 905 two days later. ‘Buy on the rumor, sell on the news’ might be part of the explanation.

    Despite my trepidation, I’ll let my opinion be guided by Warren Buffett and corporate insiders (in that order).

    Unfortunately, Buffett has said you shouldn’t own stocks if a 50% drop in price is a worry…

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