Screaming economy, hardscrabble past
Regular readers know that we’ve been very interested in the fantastic growth of China’s economy for a few years, but until now we’ve never spent time in the country. Our recent visit confirms our thoughts on the PPP calculation of GDP from a few years ago. China’s GDP has been on a tear, but PPP tends to overstate the wealth of individuals in this industrializing country.
China seems in some ways like America of a century ago, and in some ways like the early post-WWII period. The nasty air and endless cavalcades of trucks carrying intermediate industrial goods in places like Jinan are reminiscent of cities like Pittsburgh during the period of America’s industrial apogee more than half a century ago. (Steel output in the US peaked in 1959, in case you didn’t know.)
One metaphor for the past and present in China’s industrial development is this: in some new as well as old buildings (some airports, hotels and office buildings) there is no central heating in public areas, conference rooms and many offices. Employees, even executives, keep the lights unlit; everyone wears overcoats, even in meetings in places of business. This is particularly noticeable when the temperature is 10-15 degrees, which it has been for some time now. Gleaming buildings with people shivering in the lobby; Americans wouldn’t put up with it for ten minutes.
Americans have largely forgotten how far the country has come in a short time and have in many cases lost the gift of gratitude. China’s collective memory of its hardscrabble past is very much alive.

January 14th, 2010 at 2:20 am
I’ve always wondered how the Chinese are going to go about selling their US denominated securities. Is there enough yuan or renminbi floating around in the international banking system to convert the billions of US dollars that they presently have? I think not. That is the reason I suspect any commodity or company of value will be bid up by the Chinese in an effort to convert US paper assets into something they can use inside China.
Their currency sterilization process likely has hit a wall.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj28n2/cj28n2-4.pdf