Obama’s approval numbers are misleading
According to Rasmussen, 46% of likely voters still approve of President Obama’s performance, a shockingly high number in our opinion. (We are less surprised that 44% of likely voters strongly disapprove of his performance.) What could explain the persistence of the large 46% who still approve of him?
In 2008 16 million African Americans voted out of 131 million total voters, and 96% of this group voted for Obama. If African-Americans have continued that level of support until now, it would put some interesting numbers into play.
Since African-Americans comprised about 12% of voters in 2008, and were nearly unanimous in supporting Obama, the President’s approval numbers would be almost 12% lower among the rest of the electorate if he retained the loyalty of this core group of supporters. In other words, his support among non-African-American likely voters would be around 35%.
35% is an interesting number because the number of people who favor Obama/Democrat/MSM policies (suing Arizona, favoring the Ground Zero mosque, enacting Obamacare, opposing Prop 8, etc.) is consistent with a popularity rating in the mid-30′s. Prop 8 is an interesting example, since 70% of black voters supported that initiative.
Would it surprise anyone if the key support demographics of young voters in 2008 (who aren’t that likely to vote in 2010), and African-American voters, who may like Obama but oppose many of his policies, artificially skew the President’s approval numbers to make him seem more popular than he actually is?
UPDATE
Our thesis has been confirmed. According to Gallup, Obama’s approval rating among black Americans is 91%, which means that roughly one out of three non-African-American Democrats disapprove of Obama’s performance, which is a high disapproval rating indeed.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:23 am
Obama’s approval rating among black Americans may have dropped but it is just the beginning, the stats could still climb. The economy might go up, schools might become better and healthcare might be available for everyone. The future is unknown, lets hope for the best and prepare for the worst.