If 2010 produces unanticipated election results, give technology some credit
Six years ago we wrote a piece about how the rapid growth of heavy internet usage was likely to change politics in coming years. In 2004, 59% of voters got absolutely zero campaign news from the internet. Can you believe that? How long ago 2004 seems.
Some of the things that have changed include: (a) most people now have high-speed internet access on multiple devices; (b) women (the majority of Tea Partiers) and geezers are much more tech-savvy; and (c) everybody and his brother has a website or is into social networking. In addition, Democrats themselves say they are demoralized this year, and 2010 is an unusual time of “extreme populism.”
We could well be wrong, but we remember 1994, and this year feels like 1994 on steroids. Moreover, and here’s the thing, a decentralized, technology powered grass roots rebellion is probably undetectable through conventional methods like polling. Of course, whether 2010 produces unusual electoral results depends upon how large the insurgency really is, and we won’t know that until the votes are counted.
However, it is obvious from the disconnect between talk radio audiences and the Washington establishment of both parties that the insurgents believe that their numbers are vast. If the insurgency succeeds in producing large, unanticipated numbers of voters, we will have witnessed the first, nearly-totally viral GOTV campaign in American history.
September 18th, 2010 at 6:45 pm
Fox New Watch discussed today a new Pew Research study released last week ( http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1725/where-people-get-news-print-online-readership-cable-news-viewers ) which supports your observation. It concluded 44% of Americans now get their news from some internet or mobile source.
The breakdown of information input was: Traditional sources only (television, radio and print) – 39%; a combination of digital (internet and mobile) and traditional sources (no indication if this ‘traditional’ includes the on-line edition of newspapers which is the only place I read a UK or Washington DC paper) – 36%; digital sources only – 9%.
I think you need to add the listeners to conservative radio to the 44% who get information from non-traditional sources, but the study doesn’t define its populations that way. But there’s no question people are finding their way over, under, and around the One-Party Media’s liberal gatekeepers, to the detriment of lobbyists, pundits, and the Beltway insiders of both parties.
September 20th, 2010 at 3:15 am
It has occurred to me that the traditional Democratic belief that government largesse buys votes may no longer be true. Their is a dawning realisation that government has created the problems that require government programs to solve and the only entity benefiting is the government. It’s time to starve the beast.
September 21st, 2010 at 2:46 am
I just hang up the phone when I’m called, and I feel like I must have one of the last private land lines in existence. I’ll let them know how I feel in November, but here’s a clue:
This year I took a pay cut due to four weeks of enforced furlough. Business stinks. So far, I’m seeing property tax increases in the double digits. New York State is as blue as it gets. Does Andrew Cuomo strike you as believer in reducing the size of the government to something we can afford?