Niall Ferguson:

a peaceful transition to Western-style democracy in the Arab world is, of all the scenarios, the least probable. The more likely outcomes are (a) 1848-style restorations of the old regimes; (b) a descent into protracted civil wars; (c) Islamist takeovers; (d) a regionwide Sunni-Shiite conflict. By the way, (b), (c), and (d) are not necessarily mutually exclusive. They may be a sequence of events.

There are reasons not to be surprised if Ferguson is correct, and BTW you can expect all sorts of silly explanations of same if chaos occurs.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011 at 2:48 am and is filed under Democrats, EU, Religion, Republicans, War. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.