Then and now?

Then:

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the “Little Ice Age”…

Now:

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century. The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

‘This is highly unusual and unexpected,’ said Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network. ‘But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.’…

The Sun normally follows an 11-year cycle of activity. The current cycle, Cycle 24, is now supposed to be ramping up towards maximum strength. Increased numbers of sunspots and other indications ought to be happening: but in fact results so far are most disappointing. Scientists at the NSO now suspect, based on data showing decades-long trends leading to this point, that Cycle 25 may not happen at all…

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any sunspots were observed between 1645-1715.

We recall what the environmental minister of Northern Ireland predicted a few years ago. Brrrr. (Perhaps this is an opportunity for the government to save a few dollars.)

2 Responses to “Then and now?”

  1. kalashnikat Says:

    So if this is on the normal 11 year/22 year cycle, why is it unexpected?
    Are we not following the expected cycle? Or does only the word “Unexpected” make it newsworthy to the general press? Or is it just the fact that when a Minimum like Maunder comes along the cycle is less pronounced?

  2. feeblemind Says:

    I sure hope they are wrong about global cooling, but fear they are right.

    What people have forgotten is that it is still possible that The West could have a genuine food crisis. Plants do not do well in cool weather and couple that with a late and early season freeze on a wide scale and we are in trouble. In the early 1800s, the Dalton minimum combined with volcanic activity to produce a frost in every month in New England.

    re Kalashnikat: There is more on Sunspots at the blog Watts Up With That. There are other articles on the topic at the site bedsides the one linked to.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/17/easterbrook-on-the-potential-demise-of-sunspots/#more-41821

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