They’re going to rue the day…..

Jay Cost quotes The Hill and explains:

“President Obama is retaining his commanding lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, topping the Republican presidential nominee by 12 points in a poll released Wednesday by Franklin & Marshall College”…To appreciate just how important the use of registered voters is, consider that the aforementioned Franklin & Marshall College poll in Pennsylvania found 50 percent of its sample identifying as Democratic. In 2008 – the best year for Democrats in over a decade – only 44 percent of the Pennsylvania electorate called itself Democratic. And combine this point with the last point to consider that, in a poll that is 50 percent Democratic, Obama is only pulling in 48 percent!

The sample bias is just plain crazy because it’s an exercise in self-delusion. In November they’re going to rue the day they allowed this to happen. Mitt Romney is way ahead in the race. Moreover, we’d bet dollars to doughnuts that the polls overstate the president’s support among key portions of the electorate, since they don’t want to be called names by people in the media and others.

4 Responses to “They’re going to rue the day…..”

  1. Zachriel Says:

    Dinocrat: The sample bias is just plain crazy because it’s an exercise in self-delusion.

    “Survey results were weighted (age, gender, and party) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State.”

  2. Jason Says:

    Its not self delusion. They are telling fibs to keep their voters from despair/defection and keep they other guys down. People like to vote for winners, so they act like they are the winner. I’m pretty sure they people putting out skewed polling know exactly what they are doing and do the political professionals on both sides.

  3. feeblemind Says:

    From North Carolina:

    This is stunning:

    ‘The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today, compared with 76 percent for Obama.”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-african-american-vote-black-north-carolina-2012-6

    If the poll is accurate and remains this way to November, and reflects the attitudes of all African Americans, then 0bama is finished and there is nothing he can do to avoid a crushing defeat.

  4. Zachriel Says:

    feeblemind: If the poll is accurate and remains this way to November, and reflects the attitudes of all African Americans, then 0bama is finished and there is nothing he can do to avoid a crushing defeat.

    They only sampled 200 African Americans, so it may not be representative.

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