One marble in a fishbowl filled with 10,000 marbles

The gulf is so wide between the blue and the red that there is no bridging it. So we return to that old chestnut, catastrophic climate change caused by CO2 from fossil fuels, etc. In a bowl full of 10,000 blue marbles, one turned red over the last century. What a leap of faith it must require to believe that this means Doom! (Or what a fat paycheck!)

Doom! Pay no attention to the 7800 nitrogen marbles! Pay no heed to the 2000 oxygen marbles! That one CO2 marble spells Doom! Doom! And they say the skeptics are anti-science.

3 Responses to “One marble in a fishbowl filled with 10,000 marbles”

  1. gs Says:

    1. The earth’s temperature is roughly 300K. ‘K’ denotes a degree Kelvin, which is a degree Centigrade (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit) but measured from absolute zero rather than from the freezing point of water.

    One part in 10000 is a hundredth of a percent, or a basis point.

    If the earth’s temperature has increased by 1 degree Centigrade, i.e. by 0.3% from absolute zero, while the CO2 concentration has increased by 1bp or 0.01%, that suggests the temperature is leveraged to CO2 concentration by 30:1.

    Furthermore, fwiw, in terms of Jack’s heuristic picture of the atmosphere as stacked cubical boxes, each containing a molecule, each cube has 26 neighbors: 6 touch it at a face, 12 at an edge, and 8 at a vertex.

    2. The above handwaving may or may not be BS of the purest ray serene; I neither claim nor disavow that it is relevant to what’s going on in the atmosphere. I neither claim nor disavow that GW, AGW, and/or CAGW are real. I’m not saying there is a problem, and I’m not saying there is nothing to worry about. My opinion has not changed from what I commented a few months ago.

    In apparent contrast to our host, I do not dismiss concerns about climate change as absurd on their face.

  2. Zachriel Says:

    Dinocrat: Pay no attention to the 7800 nitrogen marbles! Pay no heed to the 2000 oxygen marbles!

    That’s right. Oxygen and nitrogen are not greenhouse gases, as they are virtually unaffected by infrared radiation, so they can be ignored. Greenhouse gases, those that absorb and emit infrared radiation, include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone, each with its own thermal footprint. Carbon dioxide constitutes about a fourth of the greenhouse effect.

    Dinocrat: And they say the skeptics are anti-science.

    To be anti-science, you have to avoid the type of strawman exemplified in your original post.

    gs: My opinion has not changed from what I commented a few months ago: “If humanity hasn’t learn to tweak the atmosphere by the time the extreme AGW scenarios are expected, it doesn’t deserve the label of homo sapiens.”

    Well, humans are already tweaking the atmosphere, only they are doing it without any thought of the consequences. Part of the human response to climate change will certainly be to stop such unconscious and dangerous tweaking.

  3. Zachriel Says:

    Should read: To {avoid being} anti-science, you have to avoid the type of strawman exemplified in your original post.

Leave a Reply