Numbers

Michael Barone:

The 2008-2012 Obama campaign — it never really stopped — did an excellent job of turning out just enough voters to win 332 electoral votes in 2012. But Obama carried just 26 states to Romney’s 24, which is relevant when you look at future senatorial elections. As for House elections, Obama carried only 207 congressional districts to Romney’s 228…The Obamacare contraception mandate helped Romney carry 59 percent of white Catholics — probably their highest Republican percentage ever — and 79 percent of white evangelical Protestants. Those groups total 44 percent of the electorate. That’s a counterbalance to Obama’s 93 percent among blacks and 71 percent among Hispanics. They were just 23 percent of the electorate…

George W. Bush’s 51 percent re-election, with 11.5 million more votes than four years before, got his strategist Karl Rove musing about a permanent Republican majority. That didn’t happen. Now Obama’s 51 percent re-election, with 3.6 million fewer votes than four years before, has Democrats talking about annihilating the Republican Party.

Romney won voters over 30 by 2 million votes and lost voters under 30 by over 5 million votes. Everything turns on the question of whether those under 30 will change over time. Certain things bode ill — the education system, the media, the 40% of children now born out of wedlock, the decline of religion, and the disconnection with the American past that their elders know. On the other hand there’s the economy and the rendezvous with destiny that is the coming $20 trillion in debt. We’ll see.

Leave a Reply